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Doomsayer Joye: Don't buy property now! - MacroBusiness
Source: macrobusiness.com.au
Article summary:
1. Chris Joye, once a great Australian property bull, is now a bear and warns against buying property.
2. Central bankers are trying to crush inflation by lowering asset prices, but fiscal policy will determine the risk-free rate.
3. The global economy still has a demand deficit and excess savings, which could lead to lowflation persisting in the future.
Article analysis:
The article is written by David Llewellyn-Smith, Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super, and founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. This gives him credibility as an expert in economics and finance.
The article presents Chris Joye's opinion that people should not buy property now due to higher risk-free interest rates that will force down asset valuations permanently lower. It then goes on to explain how central banks are trying to combat inflation by lowering asset prices, but that fiscal policy will ultimately determine the risk-free rate. Finally, it discusses how there is still a demand deficit and excess savings globally which could lead to lowflation persisting in the future.
The article does not present any counterarguments or explore any other potential outcomes from this situation such as increased investment opportunities or potential benefits for certain sectors of the economy due to lower interest rates. It also does not provide any evidence for its claims or discuss any possible risks associated with its predictions such as market volatility or potential losses for investors who choose to invest despite Joye's warnings. Additionally, it does not present both sides of the argument equally; instead it focuses solely on Joye's opinion without exploring other perspectives or providing additional information from other sources that could help readers make an informed decision about whether or not they should invest in property now.
In conclusion, while this article provides an interesting perspective on current economic conditions from an experienced financial expert, it lacks balance by only presenting one side of the argument without exploring counterarguments or providing evidence for its claims. As such, readers should take this article with a grain of salt when making decisions about their investments in property now.