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Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years | Nature
Source: nature.com
Article summary:
1. A new spatially weighted proxy reconstruction of global temperature over the past 2 million years has been estimated from a multi-proxy database of over 20,000 sea surface temperature point reconstructions.
2. The new GAST reconstruction reveals a remarkably stable relationship between GAST and GHG radiative forcing over the past 800 kyr with a correlation of 0.82, and estimates an Earth system sensitivity of 9 degrees Celsius change in global average surface temperature per doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide over millennium timescales.
3. Global cooling may have been a pre-condition for, but probably is not the sole causal mechanism of, the shift to quasi-100,000-year glacial cycles at the mid-Pleistocene transition.
Article analysis:
The article “Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years” by Nature provides an interesting insight into the evolution of global temperatures over time. The article presents a spatially weighted proxy reconstruction of global temperature over the past 2 million years estimated from a multi-proxy database of over 20,000 sea surface temperature point reconstructions. It also presents several key findings such as polar amplification (the amplification of temperature change at the poles relative to global temperature change), Earth system sensitivity (ESS), and potential causes for the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT).
The article is generally reliable and trustworthy in its presentation and analysis of data. It provides detailed information on its methodology and sources, which are all credible scientific sources such as peer reviewed papers or databases. Furthermore, it provides evidence for its claims in terms of correlations between different variables as well as probabilistic simulations across multiple sources of uncertainty to estimate credible intervals at 1-kyr intervals.
However, there are some potential biases that should be noted when considering this article’s trustworthiness and reliability. Firstly, it does not explore any counterarguments or alternative explanations for its findings which could provide further insight into its conclusions. Secondly, it does not consider any possible risks associated with its findings which could be important to note when interpreting them in terms of policy implications or other applications. Finally, it does not present both sides equally when discussing potential causes for the MPT; while it acknowledges that changes in nonlinear feedbacks internal to the climate system could be responsible for this shift, it does not provide any evidence or discussion on how erosion underneath ice sheets could also play a role in this transition.
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