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Article summary:
1. This article examines the gold price after the Bretton Woods Agreement using an ARIMA model approach.
2. The article reviews literature and theory to explain the movements of the gold price, as well as empirical findings on independent variables correlating with the gold price.
3. The article evaluates an ARIMA model to fit the gold price, and finds that a multivariate ARIMA model using independent variables explains almost twice as much of the variability of the gold price as a univariate ARIMA model using only the gold price.
Article analysis:
The article is generally reliable and trustworthy in its presentation of information and analysis. It provides a comprehensive overview of relevant literature and theory, as well as empirical findings on independent variables correlating with the gold price. The data sources used are clearly stated, and assumptions for an ARIMA model are explained in detail. Furthermore, it provides a thorough evaluation of an ARIMA model to fit the gold price, including detailed statistics for both normal times and crises periods.
The article does not appear to be biased or one-sided in its reporting, nor does it contain any promotional content or partiality towards any particular viewpoint or opinion. All claims made are supported by evidence from reliable sources, such as data from World Gold Council 2008 and Kitco.com. Additionally, all possible risks associated with investing in gold are noted throughout the article.
The only potential issue with this article is that it does not explore counterarguments or present both sides equally when discussing certain topics related to investing in gold (such as herding behaviour). However, this is not essential for understanding or evaluating the main points of this article, which is focused primarily on explaining movements in the gold price using an ARIMA model approach rather than providing advice on investing strategies or opinions on whether investing in gold is beneficial or not.