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Selecting scenarios for environmental disaster planning - ScienceDirect
Source: sciencedirect.com
Article summary:
1. The increasing magnitude of human activities and experience of environmental disasters has caused government agencies to assess the potential risk of such events.
2. Scenario definition is used to decide what factors are most critical in assessing damage from likely spills, and to communicate the expected impact of possible spills.
3. A formal method for selecting a balanced mix of scenarios based on their relative probability and the amount of information they might offer has recently been developed in the futures literature.
Article analysis:
The article “Selecting scenarios for environmental disaster planning” provides an overview of how governments can assess the potential risk of rare but disastrous events, such as oil tanker breakups or chemical releases from factories. The article outlines a formal method for selecting a balanced mix of scenarios based on their relative probability and the amount of information they might offer, which is useful for assessing the impact of potential accidents.
The article is generally reliable and trustworthy, as it provides an overview of current methods used by governments to assess potential risks associated with environmental disasters. It also provides evidence for its claims in the form of references to other research papers that have explored this topic in more detail. However, there are some areas where the article could be improved upon. For example, it does not provide any counterarguments or explore any alternative methods that could be used to assess these risks. Additionally, it does not discuss any possible risks associated with using this method or any potential biases that may arise from its use.
In conclusion, while this article provides a useful overview of current methods used by governments to assess potential risks associated with environmental disasters, it could be improved upon by providing more detailed information about alternative methods and exploring possible risks associated with using this method.