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Article summary:
1. A flexible chance-constrained programming (FCP) method is developed to tackle uncertainties in energy systems.
2. A China’s non-deterministic energy planning model is formulated to achieve carbon neutrality under the minimization of system cost, considering CCUS technology and forest carbon sinks.
3. Results suggest that China should reduce the use of coal and oil and increase the use of renewable energy, phase down coal-fired power installed capacity, reach peak CO2 emissions for its energy system by 2025, and take advantage of the synergistic effect of carbon neutrality for air quality improvement.
Article analysis:
This article provides a comprehensive overview of the challenges associated with long-term energy system planning at the national level in order to achieve carbon neutrality. The authors present a flexible chance-constrained programming (FCP) method to tackle uncertainties presented as random probability distribution and fuzzy information, which can also balance the trade-off between system objective and constraint-violation risk. Furthermore, they formulate a China’s non-deterministic energy planning model to achieve carbon neutrality under the minimization of system cost, considering CCUS technology and forest carbon sinks. The results are based on 72 scenarios associated with different CCUS installation rates and risk-response attitudes.
The article is generally reliable in terms of its content; however, there are some potential biases that should be noted. Firstly, it does not provide an equal representation of both sides when discussing climate change mitigation strategies; instead it focuses solely on solutions that involve reducing CO2 emissions without exploring other possible options such as adaptation or geoengineering approaches. Secondly, while it does mention potential risks associated with implementing certain strategies (e.g., CCUS), it does not provide any detailed analysis or discussion on these risks or how they could be mitigated. Finally, while the authors do provide some evidence for their claims (e.g., citing statistics from various sources), there is still room for further exploration into other sources that could provide additional evidence or counterarguments to support their conclusions.