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Future Seasonal Changes in Extreme Precipitation Scale With Changes in the Mean - Bador - 2022 - Earth's Future - Wiley Online Library
Source: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Article summary:
1. Global warming is expected to lead to an intensification of precipitation, particularly for extreme events.
2. Changes in total and extreme precipitation intensity are controlled by different mechanisms, with the former being constrained by the Earth's energy balance and the latter primarily determined by atmospheric moisture content.
3. This article investigates future changes in precipitation intensity at local and regional scales, with a focus on seasonal changes, using a large ensemble of 29 CMIP6 models.
Article analysis:
The article is generally trustworthy and reliable as it provides evidence from both observations and models to support its claims about global warming leading to an intensification of precipitation, particularly for extreme events. The authors also use a consistent framework and a large ensemble of 29 CMIP6 models to investigate future changes in precipitation intensity at local and regional scales, with a focus on seasonal changes. Furthermore, they define robustness of change as at least 80% of the models agreeing on the sign of change which is similar to the threshold mostly used in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
However, there are some potential biases that should be noted. For example, while the authors compare annual and seasonal projections together to better inform decision-making around some impact sectors, they do not explore any possible counterarguments or present both sides equally. Additionally, they do not provide any evidence for their claims about slow temperature-driven adjustments to radiative forcings or discuss any possible risks associated with their findings. Finally, there is no mention of promotional content or partiality in this article which could be seen as a potential bias if present.