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Article summary:
1. This study aimed to establish a combined model of SARIMA and Prophet models based on an L1-norm to predict the incidence of AIDS in Henan province, China.
2. The monthly incidences of AIDS in Henan province from 2012 to 2020 were obtained from the Health Commission of Henan Province.
3. The results showed that the combined model based on the L1-norm had the best effect values (MSE = 0.0056, MAE = 0.0553, MAPE = 43.5337).
Article analysis:
The article is generally reliable and trustworthy as it provides evidence for its claims and presents both sides equally. The authors have used data from the Health Commission of Henan Province to support their findings and have provided detailed information about their methodology and results. Furthermore, they have discussed potential biases in their study such as missing points of consideration or unsupported claims, which adds to its trustworthiness. However, there are some areas where more research could be done such as exploring counterarguments or providing more evidence for certain claims made in the article. Additionally, there is no mention of possible risks associated with using this combined model for forecasting AIDS incidence in Henan Province which should be noted by readers before making any decisions based on this article's findings.