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The informal economy at times of COVID-19 pandemic | Elsevier Enhanced Reader
Source: reader.elsevier.com
Article summary:
1. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a disproportionate impact on China's offline micro businesses (OMBs) in the informal services sector, who are mainly self-employed and not able to work from home.
2. Using weekly data from Ant Group, this article studies the initial impacts of COVID-19 on OMBs and their recovery since the virus has been largely under control.
3. The number and sales turnover of active merchants bottomed out in the second week of the post-virus period, January 31 – February 6, and remained in a downturn for the following three weeks. Relative to the counterfactual level estimated from machine learning technique, the average weekly drops in the number and sales turnover of active merchants were around 50%.
Article analysis:
The article is overall reliable and trustworthy as it provides evidence for its claims through data collected from Ant Group, which is one of China’s largest Fintech companies. The article also uses a machine learning technique to predict counterfactuals and further interpret the difference between realized and counterfactual results as causal impacts of the pandemic. Furthermore, it provides detailed information about how vulnerable groups have been affected by COVID-19 such as those employed in gig economy who are particularly vulnerable to dramatic collapses of income and loss of livelihood.
However, there are some potential biases that should be noted when reading this article. Firstly, it does not provide any information about how other countries have been affected by COVID-19 or how their informal economies have responded to it. Secondly, while it does provide evidence for its claims through data collected from Ant Group, there is no mention of any other sources that could be used to corroborate these findings or provide additional insights into this topic. Finally, while it does discuss potential long-term effects on vulnerable groups due to COVID-19 such as persistent inequalities and low mobility, there is no discussion about possible solutions or strategies that could be implemented to mitigate these effects.