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1. President Trump's foreign policy has challenged established norms and strained the transatlantic relationship, with his disparagement of NATO, use of punitive tariffs, contempt for multilateralism, and willingness to court dictators. While some hope for improvement under Joe Biden, deeper changes are transforming the relationship beyond Trump's idiosyncrasies.

2. Three long-term trends will shape the future of US foreign policy and the transatlantic relationship: a global shift in power distribution, particularly the implications of the US-China rivalry for Europe; the US' enduring ambivalence towards multilateralism; and changing domestic coalitions within the US that challenge traditional foreign policy consensus.

3. The US-China rivalry is putting pressure on the transatlantic relationship in two ways: first, as US strategic interests shift towards Asia, its commitments to Europe weaken, making NATO's future uncertain; second, Europe is caught between American and Chinese interests, facing difficult strategic choices due to close economic ties with both countries and their competition for dominance over global digital networks.

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