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Article summary:

1. Collaboration is increasingly important in innovation ecosystems, but interdependence can lead to biased decision-making. Managers may not effectively account for the risk that arises from dependence on partners, and there is a systematic bias toward optimism in interdependent ventures as a whole.

2. Perception of interdependence gives rise to this bias, even when there is perfect awareness of interdependence. When interdependent opportunities are presented in terms of their separate components, they are perceived more favorably, leading to naive choices and excessive risk-taking.

3. Conjunctive interdependence is characteristic of ecosystem settings and presents challenges for setting expectations when significant value is contingent on successful execution by multiple parties. Different presentations of interdependence affect how attractive multiparty opportunities are perceived to be, and a behavioral decision-making lens can help manage interdependence.

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