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Article summary:
1. Coulomb pre-stress, which is the cumulative CST from multiple earthquakes and interseismic loading on non-planar faults, can explain why historical earthquakes rarely rupture nearest neighbor faults.
2. Fault geometry affects calculations of CST and can amplify or diminish the CST when compared to adjacent regions of the fault.
3. Interseismic CST loading is modeled as an annual rate of loading and when summed over decades to centuries (or longer), it becomes an important component of the Coulomb pre-stress.
Article analysis:
The article “Coulomb Pre-Stress and Fault Bends are Ignored Yet Vital Factors for Earthquake Triggering and Hazard” by G. P. Roberts et al., published in Nature Communications, provides a detailed analysis of how Coulomb pre-stress can affect earthquake triggering and hazard in central Italy. The authors provide evidence that Coulomb pre-stress is an important factor in understanding earthquake sequences, as it can explain why historical earthquakes rarely rupture nearest neighbor faults. They also demonstrate that fault geometry affects calculations of CST, as along-strike fault bends can amplify or diminish the CST when compared to adjacent regions of the fault.
The article is well written and provides a comprehensive overview of the topic at hand, with clear explanations and examples provided throughout. The authors have used a variety of sources to support their claims, including field photos, cross sections, maps, equations, etc., which adds credibility to their arguments. Furthermore, they have taken into account both coseismic and interseismic CST loading when calculating Coulomb pre-stress over many centuries containing numerous earthquakes – something which has not been done before – thus providing valuable additional information compared to conventional planar approaches.
However, there are some potential biases present in the article which should be noted. Firstly, while the authors have taken into account pore fluid effects when calculating Coulomb pre-stress, they lack direct measurements of this factor at seismogenic depths; thus they have neglected this factor in their analysis – something which could potentially lead to inaccurate results if pore fluid pressure changes do indeed play a role in triggering earthquakes. Secondly, while they have discussed how fault bends can affect calculations of CST and generate negative stress barriers that could impede earthquake rupture propagation, they do not explore other possible factors such as temperature or strain rate that could also influence these calculations; thus their conclusions may be incomplete or one sided if these factors are indeed relevant to understanding